Will housing prices drop in Ontario?

This is a rhetorical question that I hear every year since I started my real estate career. Soon it will be 13 years. Realtors, along with the public, have access to different sources that can help predict the outcomes of what is going to happen to real estate prices.

Since August 2020 I ran across one and the same information that home prices in Canada will decline between 9% and 18% from its pre-covid level. I got curious where all these authors got their numbers from? And, I found the source – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). You can find more details here.

This information was released in the end of March 2020, and I have big doubts about the accuracy of this forecast (to give a credit to the infinite wisdom of CMHC, they corrected some numbers in the later reports).

Here is why we will not see a drop of housing prices in Ontario:

  • Overarching demand that far outpaces supply
  • Big number of investors wanting real estate hard assets versus volatile and unstable stocks
  • Low bank and bond ROI rates
  • No reduction in property taxes and development charges
  • Double-digit increases in construction labour costs and materials
  • Decades of government failures to encourage housing construction

If you are thinking to move and decide you’d like some professional expertise, we would love to hear from you. We, realtors, have our fingers on the pulse of the market.